What if SC's ESEA flexibility waiver isn't renewed?

The US Department of Education announced July 3 that it has extended the ESEA-NCLB flexibility waiver for six states until the end of school year 14-15. SC was not in this first announcement. See the Politics K-12 Edweek blog  on this. Technically SC's waiver ended with SY 13-14. 

Changes to the evaluation systems occurred so SC could keeps its ESEA waiver. Will those changes matter if SC's waiver is not renewed? What are the issues related to renewal for SC? 

To get a waiver, states had to agree to: 

1. Adopt "college- and career-ready standards" and "high-quality assessments." Both terms in quotes are defined in the waiver materials. 

• SC's legislature has required new standards starting in SY 15-16. Will those be "college- and career-ready"? Standards must be either "common to a significant number of states" (aka common core state standards), or ""approved by a State network of institutions of higher education, which certify that students who meet the standards will not need remedial course work at the postsecondary level." So whatever standards are developed would need to be "certified" by SC's higher ed institutions. 
• The legislature also prohibited use of the SMARTER Balanced assessment. A new assessment is required by statute to be selected by September 30 - but will it meet the "high-quality" definition? The assessment must cover the standards and be "valid, reliable, and fair for its intended purposes." but it must also cover the full range of standards no matter how difficult to measure; elicit complex student demonstrations or applications of knowledge and skills;  provide an accurate measure for the "full performance continuum, including high- and low-achieving students"; provide accurate growth measures over a full course/year; provide growth data that can be used to determine whether students are on track to being college- and career-ready; assess ELLs and students with disabilities; provide alternate assessments; and produce data "that can be used to inform: determinations of school effectiveness...; determinations of individual principal and teacher effectiveness for purposes of evaluation; determinations of principal and teacher professional development and support needs; and teaching, learning, and program improvement."
• SC has pending proposed changes to its application concerning assessment. 

2.  Adopt a State-developed differentiated recognition, accountability, and support system. That's the A-F grades that are assigned to schools and districts based primarily on mean scale score changes in testing. SC recently (June 2) received approval for 22 changes, all related to this element 2. 

3.  Support effective instruction and leadership - primarily through changes to principal and teacher evaluation and support systems. SC has a pending amendment request from March, which is when SC's extension was requested. 

4. Reducing duplication and unnecessary burden - states were to reduce red tape. Most people have forgotten that this requirement even exists, and USED did not ask for state plans on it. 

So how likely is it that SC's extension request will be granted? USED has frequently said it wants to work with states to get to "yes" on waivers. Given the uncertainty on principle 1 - standards and assessments - it may be a while before we know whether SC will receive an extension for SY 14-15. And if the extension is not granted, what will happen to the evaluation changes?  Stay tuned.